People participate in strategic voting because they feel it will increase the odds of a party with preferred principles and policies to win that seat. Does it work? Sometimes, but not always. It depends on the actual likelihood of a specific political candidate being elected to that seat and what influence other factors will play within that campaign.
.jpg)
For those who truly want to make their vote count, all that noise can make it difficult to know what to do on election day. When voting strategically, it is important to visualize the likelihood of each candidate achieving the winning seat and what degree of power that seat will give their party. It is generally the leading party and its main opposition who are most likely to enact the principles and policies that will affect you. So what should you do? Let's take a look at the facts as well as some of the misinformation. Then we'll try to figure out the answer.
In Canada that person was Jack Layton of the NDP Party, while in the United States Bernie Sanders is a good example. These polititions had the personality and drive to pull a third-place horse into a potentially winning position. They dramatically changed the odds of their party achieving a political win.
Some of the propaganda is initiated out of country but much is coming directly from those whose political fortunes or monetary interests are at stake. It's an advertising campaign with high dollar stakes and those who are posting these items will use misinformation if it increases their odds of a win.
The main rule of thumb is that if you seriously want your vote to count then ignore the propaganda and focus on the big picture. It is best to put your vote for one of the two main political parties if you want principles and policies that are similar to your own to come into play. Of course there are always exceptions to this rule and as stated earlier if your local candidate is the leader of a minor party or a highly regarded charismatic figure then your vote will likely elect them into a seat in Ottawa. They are the most likely candidates to win their seat.
My advice is to fact check everything before you make a decision. Elections can be a battleground of mistruths, deceptive manipulation of propaganda, and school yard bully taunts. My advice is that you fact check every piece of information that comes your direction. Don't let the propaganda sway you into strategic voting. Fact check who the information comes from and who it benefits from it. Don't share on social media websites anything that may not be the absolute truth.
In recent years, there has been a wave of encouragement on social media for people to participate in strategic voting. Some of this propaganda is legitimate, but it is important to realize that a great deal of this noise is also propaganda. The ads, articles, and memes encouraging you to vote strategically may actually be attempting to do nothing more than to sway your vote in a manner that will increase the odds for the party they favour.
.jpg)
It's all in the odds. In most countries there are two or three main political parties. In the U.S., these are the Republican and the Democrat parties. In Canada it is the Liberals, Conservatives, and the New Democrat Party (NDP). In Federal elections, it is generally the Liberal or Conservative parties who form the governing party and the bulk of the opposition. This is an indication that odds favour one of these two parties winning the next election thus, you would logically vote for one of the two leading parties to ensure that your vote would have the greater influence on the outcome of the election. This is especially true if your first choice was for a fringe party or for one with fewer than three seats in the house.
It is quite important to take into account the candidate running in the riding you are voting in. This is where strategic voting comes into play. Party leaders and high-profile candidates are much more likely to win their seat than a lesser-known candidate, meaning that your vote could make a difference in this circumstance even if it were for a minor party candidate.
Your choice becomes a little more difficult if it is for a party sitting below the current opposition party.
The parties with lesser MPs in office have a very slim chance of gaining the most votes in an election. However, if the candidate is highly charismatic, a party leader, or other highly recognized or respected figure then there is always the chance that under the correct circumstances they would be able to win their seat. It is up to you to decide if the stars are lining up in conditions favourable enough for them to beat the odds. This can happen when a highly charismatic candidate emerges onto the political scene.
Overall the odds are generally against one of the lesser parties winning the election so if you throw your vote for a candidate other than your first choice, it would likely not win their party the lead position in parliament. It can be confusing to decide what to do as your vote for any of these lower level parties may not win your candidate a seat in parliament and at the same time could swing the pendulum in favour of a major party to the left or right of the pendulum.
It's a Propaganda Game With a Huge Payoff
Ah but in all high stakes games there comes an underhanded element to sway your vote in a not necessarily accountable way. A split vote can change an election dramatically and there can be ways and means to encourage a voter to place their vote in such a way as to bring this factor into play. Anyone who uses social media has likely been exposed to some degree of political propaganda. For the past couple of years it has rained down on participants of Facebook, X (formally know as Twitter), Reddit, and Youtube despite numerous attempts by these networks to get it under control. The misinformation shows up as memes, doctored images, shared articles, tweets, and comments. It can spread like wildfire.
A split vote for a minor party left or right can have quite the influence to the end goal of an election so propaganda is frequently used to encourage voters to vote strategically. Often these requests will come with links to further information or polls that are designed to sway you to a specific candidate. The end result is generally that the vote will split to insure a favourable result for the propagandist's preferred candidate. The misinformation can be difficult to wade through as propaganda and polls can be easily manipulated.
Another factor that can dramatically affect the vote lies in regional sentiment. Some areas of the country have an extremely strong sentiment toward a specific candidate and this not reliant on whether or not they are of a main political party affiliation. It is up to you to realistically judge if this is occurring in your area. If it is then the likelihood of a main party winning the vote is not realistic so voting for the minor party candidate could elect them to office.
Canadian Political Parties Most Likely to Be Effected by a Split Vote
New Democrat Party (NDP): Being the third largest party, this is where vote splitting can have the greatest influence. Generally votes here would take away from the Liberal vote and increase the likelihood of a Conservative leadership.
Green Party: This party does maintain a seat in Ottawa but it is still a minority party and due its restricted agenda, likely to remain one. A vote for the Green Party will most likely take away votes from the NDP and Liberals, thereby benefitting the Conservative Party. In this case a Green Party vote could actually put into office the exact opposite of what most environmentalists look for in political policy.
People's Party: This is a newer party but one that is attracting those with more extremist views and those who are disappointed in the current status quo. Can Maxime Bernier influence the election? If so it would likely be to split the Conservative vote and thereby increase the likelihood of a Liberal win. If elected his party would be more likely to lean Conservative than Liberal in house votes.
If you decide to participate in a strategic vote visualize the likelihood of that candidate achieving the winning seat and what degree of power that seat would give the winning party. It is the leading party and its main opposition who are most likely to enact the principles and policies that will affect you. Strategic voting and splitting the vote will be key words in our upcoming elections. Learn what they mean, how they work, and how they could affect you. We are blessed to live in a democracy which means that we each get a vote in deciding how our country will be run. Make sure yours counts.